AEK Athens v Panetolikos: analysis and our pick

AEK Athens in good form

AEK Athens have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–5 away defeat at Manchester City and a 1–3 away defeat at Shakhtar Donetsk. Panetolikos have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Olympiacos and a 0–2 away defeat at Kifisia.

The head-to-head favours AEK Athens

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for AEK Athens, 0 draws, 1 for Panetolikos, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Panetolikos 0–5 AEK Athens (14 Dec 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. AEK Athens score 3.0 and concede 2.0 a game, Panetolikos 0.6 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 2.5 + 0.7 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · AEK Athens · 77%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 84%). Most likely score: 2–0.

Why these picks?

AEK Athens have the highest probability (77%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 84% from the same lambdas. 2–0 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

AEK Athens — last game: Away to Manchester City (1-5) they had 39% of the shots (11 to 17, on target 3-7). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 5 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 100% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 67% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents. Panetolikos — last game: Against Olympiacos (0-2) they had 38% of the shots (13 to 21, on target 2-7). From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 30% of the shots and 28% of the shots on target. They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4.