ADO Den Haag v Heerenveen: analysis and our pick
Eredivisie · today 22:00 · Bingoal Stadion. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Heerenveen have a chance to respond
ADO Den Haag have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over PSV Eindhoven and a 2–2 away draw with Telstar. Heerenveen have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–0 home win over Excelsior and a 0–2 away defeat at PSV Eindhoven.
The head-to-head favours Heerenveen
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for ADO Den Haag, 3 draws, 2 for Heerenveen, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: Heerenveen 3–0 ADO Den Haag (6 Mar 2021).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. ADO Den Haag score 1.4 and concede 1.8 a game, Heerenveen 2.0 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.9 = 3.4 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Heerenveen · 44%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 66%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Heerenveen have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 66% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
ADO Den Haag — last game: Against PSV Eindhoven (2-1) they had 53% of the shots (16 to 14, on target 5-3). From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (PSV Eindhoven). Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Heerenveen — last game: Against Excelsior (4-0) they had 74% of the shots (14 to 5, on target 7-1). From 7 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 71% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (ADO Den Haag) 3.30 → 3.50 (+6.1%, drifting) · 2 (Heerenveen) 2.05 → 1.95 (-4.9%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.73 → 1.80 (+4%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.60 → 2.70 (+3.8%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.