1. FC Köln v Schalke 04: analysis and our pick

Schalke 04 have a chance to respond

1. FC Köln have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt and a 2–1 home win over Borussia Monchengladbach. Schalke 04 have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to FSV Mainz 05 and a 1–2 away defeat at Freiburg.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 65%. 1. FC Köln score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game, Schalke 04 1.4 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.7 = 3.4 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · 1. FC Köln · 38%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

1. FC Köln have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

1. FC Köln — last game: Away to Eintracht Frankfurt (0-1) they had 39% of the shots (9 to 14, on target 3-7). From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Schalke 04 — last game: Against FSV Mainz 05 (0-1) they had 47% of the shots (9 to 10, on target 3-6). From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 6 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 47% of the shots and 31% of the shots on target. They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.