VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Monchengladbach: analysis and our pick
Bundesliga · tomorrow 21:30 · MHP Arena. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
VfB Stuttgart in good form
VfB Stuttgart have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Atletico Madrid and a 0–1 away defeat at Hamburger SV. Borussia Monchengladbach have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to 1899 Hoffenheim and a 1–2 away defeat at 1. FC Köln.
The head-to-head favours VfB Stuttgart
In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 0 draws, 1 for Borussia Monchengladbach, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Borussia Monchengladbach 0–3 VfB Stuttgart (25 Jan 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 50%. VfB Stuttgart score 2.2 and concede 0.4 a game, Borussia Monchengladbach 1.8 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 2.2 + 1.2 = 3.4 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · VfB Stuttgart · 58%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 66%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
VfB Stuttgart have the highest probability (58%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 66% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
VfB Stuttgart — last game: Against Atletico Madrid (1-1) they had 63% of the shots (17 to 10, on target 5-3). From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Atletico Madrid). Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 67% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 15% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Borussia Monchengladbach — last game: Against 1899 Hoffenheim (1-2) they had 39% of the shots (9 to 14, on target 3-8). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 53% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.