Torino v Monza: analysis and our pick
Serie A · tomorrow 21:45 · Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Torino in good form
Torino have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–0 away win at Parma and a 2–1 home win over Udinese. Monza have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–0 home win over Cagliari and a 1–3 away defeat at Lazio.
The head-to-head favours Torino
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Torino, 2 draws, 1 for Monza, with 1.6 goals a game. Most recently: Torino 0–1 Monza (1 Sept 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 70%. Torino score 1.6 and concede 1.0 a game, Monza 2.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.3 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Torino · 41%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Torino have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Torino — last game: Away to Parma (3-0) they had 27% of the shots (9 to 24, on target 3-7). From 3 shots on target they scored 3, the defence faced 7 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Monza — last game: Against Cagliari (4-0) they had 47% of the shots (14 to 16, on target 6-5). From 6 shots on target they scored 4, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 45% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target. They turn 61% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 45% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.