Stade Brestois 29 v Nice: analysis and our pick
Ligue 1 · tomorrow 21:45 · Stade Francis-Le-Blé. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Nice have a chance to respond
Stade Brestois 29 have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Lille and a 5–1 home win over Angers. Nice have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Lyon and a 2–1 home win over Strasbourg.
The head-to-head favours Nice
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Stade Brestois 29, 2 draws, 2 for Nice, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: Nice 2–2 Stade Brestois 29 (1 Feb 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 60%. Stade Brestois 29 score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game, Nice 1.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.2 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Stade Brestois 29 · 47%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Stade Brestois 29 have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Stade Brestois 29 — last game: Away to Lille (1-1) they had 35% of the shots (8 to 15, on target 2-6). From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Nice — last game: Away to Lyon (1-2) they had 60% of the shots (12 to 8, on target 5-4). From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Lyon). Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.