Santa Rita v Spartax: analysis and our pick
Paraibano 2 · tomorrow 01:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Spartax have a chance to respond
Santa Rita have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 6–0 away win at Spartax and a 2–0 home win over Serrano PB. Spartax have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–6 home defeat to Santa Rita and a 3–0 away win at Guarabira.
The head-to-head favours Santa Rita
In the last 2 meetings: 2 wins for Santa Rita, 0 draws, 0 for Spartax, with 6.5 goals a game. Most recently: Spartax 0–6 Santa Rita (20 Oct 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 40%. Santa Rita score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game, Spartax 1.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.1 = 2.4 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Santa Rita · 42%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 56%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Santa Rita have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 56% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Santa Rita — last game: Away to 9 de Octubre (1-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.