Polessya v Obolon'-Brovar: analysis and our pick
Premier League · tomorrow 13:00 · Tsentralnyi Stadion. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Polessya in good form
Polessya have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Dynamo Kyiv and a 2–2 away draw with Bukovyna. Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Veres Rivne and a 1–1 away draw with Chornomorets.
The head-to-head favours Polessya
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Polessya, 1 draw, 1 for Obolon'-Brovar, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Polessya 3–1 Obolon'-Brovar (26 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 40%. Polessya score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game, Obolon'-Brovar 0.8 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 0.7 = 2.6 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Polessya · 66%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 75%). Most likely score: 2–0.
Why these picks?
Polessya have the highest probability (66%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 75% from the same lambdas. 2–0 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Polessya — last game: Against Dynamo Kyiv (3-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Polessya). Over the last 2 they averaged 63% of the shots and 70% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 2). They turn 71% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 100% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs. Obolon'-Brovar — last game: Against Veres Rivne (2-0) they had 64% of the shots (14 to 8, on target 7-2). From 7 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Veres Rivne). Over the last 1 they averaged 64% of the shots and 78% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 1). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 0% of theirs. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Obolon'-Brovar) 10.00 → 13.00 (+30%, drifting) · Both teams score 2.25 → 2.75 (+22.2%, drifting) · Double chance X2 3.40 → 4.00 (+17.6%, drifting) · Not both to score 1.57 → 1.40 (-10.8%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.