Persipura Jayapura v Persiba Balikpapan: analysis and our pick
Liga 2 · tomorrow 11:30 · Mandala Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Persiba Balikpapan have a chance to respond
Persipura Jayapura have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 6–1 away win at PSBS Biak Numfor and a 1–3 home defeat to RANS Nusantara. Persiba Balikpapan have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 0–3 home defeat to Tornado Pekanbaru and a 0–2 away defeat at Barito Putera.
The head-to-head favours Persipura Jayapura
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Persipura Jayapura, 1 draw, 1 for Persiba Balikpapan, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Persiba Balikpapan 0–1 Persipura Jayapura (4 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Persipura Jayapura score 2.2 and concede 1.2 a game, Persiba Balikpapan 0.0 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 0.8 = 2.6 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Persipura Jayapura · 57%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Persipura Jayapura have the highest probability (57%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.