Metal Kharkiv v Yarud Mariupol': analysis and our pick
Persha Liga · tomorrow 13:00 · OSC Metalist. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Yarud Mariupol' have a chance to respond
Metal Kharkiv have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Ahrobiznes Volochysk and a 2–2 home draw with Viktoriya Mykolaivka. Yarud Mariupol' have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over Inhulets and a 2–1 away win at UCSA.
The head-to-head favours Metal Kharkiv
In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Metal Kharkiv, 1 draw, 0 for Yarud Mariupol', with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Metal Kharkiv 1–1 Yarud Mariupol' (25 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 45%. Metal Kharkiv score 0.8 and concede 1.2 a game, Yarud Mariupol' 1.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.3 = 2.7 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Metal Kharkiv · 40%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 77%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Metal Kharkiv have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 77% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Metal Kharkiv — last game: Against Viktoriya Mykolaivka (2-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 4 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 2.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.