Kortrijk v KV Mechelen: analysis and our pick

Kortrijk looking for a response

Kortrijk have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Genk and a 2–2 away draw with Heist. KV Mechelen have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 5–1 home win over AS Eupen and a 4–3 home win over St. Truiden.

The head-to-head favours KV Mechelen

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Kortrijk, 0 draws, 4 for KV Mechelen, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: Kortrijk 3–1 KV Mechelen (29 Nov 2024).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 40%. Kortrijk score 0.6 and concede 2.0 a game, KV Mechelen 2.2 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.6 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · KV Mechelen · 46%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 77%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

KV Mechelen have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 77% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Kortrijk — last game: Away to Genk (0-3) they had 38% of the shots (8 to 13, on target 1-6). From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 6 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Kortrijk). Over the last 4 they averaged 49% of the shots and 36% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 10% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 2 theirs, 1 for opponents. KV Mechelen — last game: Against AS Eupen (5-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 100% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 80% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.