Ipswich v Nottingham Forest: analysis and our pick

Ipswich looking for a response

Ipswich have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Manchester City and a 2–1 home win over Fulham. Nottingham Forest have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Arsenal and a 1–3 away defeat at Crystal Palace.

The head-to-head favours Nottingham Forest

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Ipswich, 2 draws, 3 for Nottingham Forest, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Ipswich 2–4 Nottingham Forest (15 Mar 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Ipswich score 1.8 and concede 2.2 a game, Nottingham Forest 0.6 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.5 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Ipswich · 38%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Ipswich have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Ipswich — last game: Away to Manchester City (2-3) they had 30% of the shots (8 to 19, on target 3-6). From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target. They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 48% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Nottingham Forest — last game: Against Arsenal (0-1) they had 61% of the shots (14 to 9, on target 2-1). From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 66% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 15% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.