Hoang Anh Gia Lai v Song Lam Nghe An: analysis and our pick
V.League 1 · tomorrow 13:00 · Pleiku Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Hoang Anh Gia Lai looking for a response
Hoang Anh Gia Lai have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 3–4 away defeat at Phu Dong and a 3–0 home win over Da Nang. Song Lam Nghe An have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh and a 1–1 home draw with Ho Chi Minh.
The head-to-head favours Hoang Anh Gia Lai
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Hoang Anh Gia Lai, 1 draw, 1 for Song Lam Nghe An, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Song Lam Nghe An 0–1 Hoang Anh Gia Lai (3 May 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 65%. Hoang Anh Gia Lai score 1.8 and concede 2.8 a game, Song Lam Nghe An 2.0 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.9 = 3.2 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Song Lam Nghe An · 47%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Song Lam Nghe An have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Song Lam Nghe An — last game: Away to Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (2-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.