Hapoel Migdal HaEmek v Ironi Baka El Garbiya: analysis and our pick
Liga Alef · tomorrow 11:30. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Ironi Baka El Garbiya have a chance to respond
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt and a 1–0 home win over Tzeirey Tamra. Ironi Baka El Garbiya have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 away win at Tzeirey Tamra and a 1–2 home defeat to Hapoel Nazareth Illit.
The head-to-head favours Ironi Baka El Garbiya
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Hapoel Migdal HaEmek, 3 draws, 2 for Ironi Baka El Garbiya, with 1.8 goals a game. Most recently: Ironi Baka El Garbiya 2–1 Hapoel Migdal HaEmek (16 Jan 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Hapoel Migdal HaEmek score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game, Ironi Baka El Garbiya 2.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.3 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Hapoel Migdal HaEmek · 41%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Hapoel Migdal HaEmek have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Ironi Baka El Garbiya — last game: Against Hapoel Nazareth Illit (1-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Ironi Baka El Garbiya). Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.