Hapoel Ironi Karmiel v Hapoel Nazareth Illit: analysis and our pick

Hapoel Nazareth Illit have a chance to respond

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Hapoel Beit Shean and a 2–0 home win over Maccabi Ironi Kfar Yona. Hapoel Nazareth Illit have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Hapoel Beit Shean and a 4–0 home win over Hapoel Bnei Musmus.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 60%. Hapoel Ironi Karmiel score 1.0 and concede 0.4 a game, Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2.4 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.2 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel · 44%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel — last game: Against Ironi Nesher (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Hapoel Nazareth Illit — last game: Away to Ironi Baka El Garbiya (2-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Ironi Baka El Garbiya). Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.