Hapoel Hadera v Maccabi Kiryat Malachi: analysis and our pick

Hapoel Hadera in good form

Hapoel Hadera have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Tzeirey Tira and a 0–0 home draw with Maccabi Yavne. Maccabi Kiryat Malachi have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–3 home draw with Ironi Beit Shemesh and a 2–1 home win over Beitar Mevaseret Zion.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 55%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 45%. Hapoel Hadera score 1.4 and concede 0.2 a game, Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 2.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.6 = 2.5 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Maccabi Kiryat Malachi · 49%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Hapoel Hadera — last game: Against Maccabi Yavne (0-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Maccabi Kiryat Malachi — last game: Against Ironi Beit Shemesh (3-3) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 3 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.