Guimaraes v Maritimo: analysis and our pick
Primeira Liga · tomorrow 22:45 · Estádio D. Afonso Henriques. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Maritimo have a chance to respond
Guimaraes have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Recreativa de Lamelas and a 0–2 away defeat at Benfica. Maritimo have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Alcochetense and a 1–2 home defeat to FC Porto.
The head-to-head favours Guimaraes
In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Guimaraes, 1 draw, 0 for Maritimo, with 1.6 goals a game. Most recently: Maritimo 1–2 Guimaraes (29 Apr 2023).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 50%. Guimaraes score 0.8 and concede 1.0 a game, Maritimo 1.0 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 0.8 = 2.1 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Guimaraes · 45%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 66%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Guimaraes have the highest probability (45%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 66% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Guimaraes — last game: Away to Benfica (0-2) they had 26% of the shots (8 to 23, on target 0-5). No shots on target, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 53% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Maritimo — last game: Against FC Porto (1-2) they had 27% of the shots (7 to 19, on target 4-8). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 8 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 35% of the shots and 30% of the shots on target. They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Maritimo) 5.75 → 5.50 (-4.3%, backed) · 1 (Guimaraes) 1.60 → 1.62 (+1.3%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.