GO Ahead Eagles v Telstar: analysis and our pick
Eredivisie · tomorrow 21:00 · De Adelaarshorst. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Telstar have a chance to respond
GO Ahead Eagles have won 0, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–4 away defeat at PEC Zwolle and a 3–3 home draw with Sparta Rotterdam. Telstar have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–4 home defeat to Feyenoord and a 2–2 home draw with ADO Den Haag.
An even head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for GO Ahead Eagles, 1 draw, 2 for Telstar, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 Telstar (8 Feb 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 75%. GO Ahead Eagles score 1.8 and concede 2.4 a game, Telstar 1.0 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.3 = 3.1 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · GO Ahead Eagles · 46%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
GO Ahead Eagles have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
GO Ahead Eagles — last game: Away to PEC Zwolle (1-4) they had 49% of the shots (18 to 19, on target 6-8). From 6 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 4 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Telstar — last game: Against Feyenoord (3-4) they had 51% of the shots (23 to 22, on target 9-11). From 9 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 4 from 11 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 45% of the shots and 34% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 28% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 23% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.