FC Porto v Central SC: analysis and our pick
Pernambucano - 1 · tomorrow 02:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Central SC have a chance to respond
FC Porto have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–4 away defeat at Belo Jardim and a 2–3 away defeat at Acadêmica Vitória. Central SC have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Ypiranga PE and a 0–2 away defeat at Ferroviario.
The head-to-head favours Central SC
In the last 2 meetings: 0 wins for FC Porto, 1 draw, 1 for Central SC, with 2.5 goals a game. Most recently: FC Porto 2–3 Central SC (19 Jan 2024).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 50%, Over 2.5 20%, both teams scored 35%. FC Porto score 0.8 and concede 1.4 a game, Central SC 0.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.0 = 1.9 goals.
Our pick
Draw (X) · 35%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 69%). Most likely score: 0–0.
Why these picks?
The 1-X-2 probabilities are close and the draw comes out on top in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 69% from the same lambdas. 0–0 is the most likely score (16%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.