Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory: analysis and our pick
A-League · tomorrow 12:00 · Suncorp Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Brisbane Roar looking for a response
Brisbane Roar have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–4 home defeat to Sydney and a 3–0 away win at Sydney Olympic. Perth Glory have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Macarthur and a 1–3 home defeat to Adelaide United.
An even head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Brisbane Roar, 1 draw, 2 for Perth Glory, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Perth Glory 2–1 Brisbane Roar (25 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 70%. Brisbane Roar score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game, Perth Glory 1.4 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.5 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Brisbane Roar · 38%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Brisbane Roar have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Brisbane Roar — last game: Away to Perth Glory (1-2) they had 45% of the shots (10 to 12, on target 3-4). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 4 on target. Over the last 2 they averaged 53% of the shots and 38% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 2). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Perth Glory — last game: Away to Macarthur (1-2) they had 60% of the shots (9 to 6, on target 6-0). From 6 shots on target they scored 1, faced no shots on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 57% of the shots and 77% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 60% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 200% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Brisbane Roar) 2.10 → 2.15 (+2.4%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.05 → 2.10 (+2.4%, drifting) · Both teams score 1.70 → 1.67 (-1.8%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.70 → 1.67 (-1.8%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.