Bolton v Middlesbrough: analysis and our pick
Championship · tomorrow 22:00 · Toughsheet Community Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Bolton in good form
Bolton have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Southampton and a 3–1 away win at Wolves. Middlesbrough have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Cardiff and a 3–2 away win at Stoke City.
The head-to-head favours Middlesbrough
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Bolton, 0 draws, 5 for Middlesbrough, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Middlesbrough 3–0 Bolton (20 Jul 2024).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Bolton score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game, Middlesbrough 2.0 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.5 = 2.8 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Middlesbrough · 42%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Middlesbrough have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Bolton — last game: Away to Southampton (0-0) they had 50% of the shots (14 to 14, on target 3-2). From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 26% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Middlesbrough — last game: Against Cardiff (2-2) they had 84% of the shots (36 to 7, on target 12-3). From 12 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Cardiff). Over the last 5 they averaged 67% of the shots and 72% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 26% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 53% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Bolton) 4.75 → 5.50 (+15.8%, drifting) · X (draw) 4.10 → 4.33 (+5.6%, drifting) · 2 (Middlesbrough) 1.60 → 1.53 (-4.4%, backed) · Double chance 1X 2.30 → 2.38 (+3.5%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.