Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pasto: analysis and our pick

Atletico Nacional in good form

Atletico Nacional have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Cucuta and a 4–1 away win at Chico. Deportivo Pasto have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Alianza Valledupar and a 0–0 home draw with Fortaleza FC.

The head-to-head favours Atletico Nacional

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Atletico Nacional, 1 draw, 0 for Deportivo Pasto, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Atletico Nacional (30 Mar 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 50%. Atletico Nacional score 2.0 and concede 1.0 a game, Deportivo Pasto 0.4 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 0.9 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Atletico Nacional · 58%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Atletico Nacional have the highest probability (58%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Atletico Nacional — last game: Away to Cucuta (0-1) they had 73% of the shots (16 to 6, on target 6-1). From 6 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 1 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 58% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Deportivo Pasto — last game: Against Alianza Valledupar (0-1) they had 69% of the shots (11 to 5, on target 2-1). From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 1 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Alianza Valledupar). Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 13% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 3 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Deportivo Pasto) 10.00 → 8.50 (-15%, backed) · X (draw) 5.25 → 5.75 (+9.5%, drifting) · Double chance X2 3.75 → 3.50 (-6.7%, backed) · Double chance 12 1.17 → 1.14 (-2.6%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.