Alaves v Malaga: analysis and our pick
La Liga · tomorrow 22:00 · Estadio de Mendizorroza. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Alaves looking for a response
Alaves have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Celta Vigo and a 1–2 home defeat to Atletico Madrid. Malaga have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–5 home defeat to Real Sociedad and a 1–1 home draw with Espanyol.
The head-to-head favours Alaves
In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Alaves, 0 draws, 1 for Malaga, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Alaves 2–1 Malaga (20 May 2023).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 60%. Alaves score 0.6 and concede 1.4 a game, Malaga 1.0 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 0.9 = 2.6 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Alaves · 56%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Alaves have the highest probability (56%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Alaves — last game: Away to Celta Vigo (1-2) they had 77% of the shots (20 to 6, on target 9-3). From 9 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 13% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Malaga — last game: Against Real Sociedad (2-5) they had 45% of the shots (17 to 21, on target 6-9). From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 5 from 9 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 38% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 34% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Over 2.5 2.00 → 2.10 (+5%, drifting) · Under 2.5 1.80 → 1.73 (-3.9%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.