Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor: analysis and our pick
Süper Lig · tomorrow 20:00 · Alanya Oba Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Kocaelispor have a chance to respond
Alanyaspor have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Fenerbahce and a 0–0 home draw with Erzurumspor FK. Kocaelispor have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Goztepe and a 1–2 away defeat at Besiktas.
The head-to-head favours Alanyaspor
In the last 3 meetings: 2 wins for Alanyaspor, 0 draws, 1 for Kocaelispor, with 2.7 goals a game. Most recently: Alanyaspor 5–0 Kocaelispor (18 Mar 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 45%. Alanyaspor score 1.0 and concede 1.2 a game, Kocaelispor 1.0 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 0.8 = 2.2 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Alanyaspor · 50%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 61%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Alanyaspor have the highest probability (50%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 61% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Alanyaspor — last game: Away to Fenerbahce (0-3) they had 35% of the shots (13 to 24, on target 5-7). From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 24% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 23% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Kocaelispor — last game: Against Goztepe (1-2) they had 56% of the shots (9 to 7, on target 1-3). From 1 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.