Union St. Gilloise v Hapoel Beer Sheva: analysis and our pick

Union St. Gilloise in good form

Union St. Gilloise have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Nijlen and a 1–1 home draw with Real Sociedad. Hapoel Beer Sheva have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Hapoel Katamon and a 1–2 away defeat at AZ Alkmaar.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 45%. Union St. Gilloise score 2.0 and concede 0.4 a game, Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.2 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.0 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Union St. Gilloise · 55%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Union St. Gilloise have the highest probability (55%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Union St. Gilloise — last game: Against Real Sociedad (1-1) they had 76% of the shots (16 to 5, on target 5-1). From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 1 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 66% of the shots and 78% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 4). They turn 23% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Hapoel Beer Sheva — last game: Against Hapoel Katamon (2-1) they had 78% of the shots (18 to 5, on target 5-3). From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Hapoel Katamon). Over the last 5 they averaged 61% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 26% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Hapoel Beer Sheva) 9.00 → 8.00 (-11.1%, backed) · 1 (Union St. Gilloise) 1.30 → 1.33 (+2.3%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.