Trabzonspor v Hearts: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa Conference League · tomorrow 19:45 · Papara Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Trabzonspor in good form
Trabzonspor have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Besiktas and a 4–2 away win at KuPS. Hearts have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–7 away defeat at Celtic and a 1–1 home draw with FC Nordsjaelland.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 55%. Trabzonspor score 2.6 and concede 0.6 a game, Hearts 1.8 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 2.2 + 1.1 = 3.3 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Trabzonspor · 60%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Trabzonspor have the highest probability (60%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Trabzonspor — last game: Against Besiktas (2-0) they had 43% of the shots (13 to 17, on target 8-6). From 8 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 6 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 48% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 14% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 3 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Hearts — last game: Away to Celtic (1-7) they had 53% of the shots (20 to 18, on target 5-10). From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 7 from 10 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 62% of the shots and 60% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 65% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Hearts) 8.50 → 9.00 (+5.9%, drifting) · X (draw) 5.00 → 5.25 (+5%, drifting) · 1 (Trabzonspor) 1.33 → 1.30 (-2.3%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.