SK Sturm Graz v Marseille: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 19:45 · Stadion Graz-Liebenau. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
SK Sturm Graz in good form
SK Sturm Graz have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 6–1 home win over Grazer AK and a 0–3 away defeat at Bournemouth. Marseille have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 5–2 away win at Angers and a 0–1 home defeat to Olympiacos.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 55%. SK Sturm Graz score 2.2 and concede 1.6 a game, Marseille 1.8 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.2 = 3.2 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · SK Sturm Graz · 55%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
SK Sturm Graz have the highest probability (55%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
SK Sturm Graz — last game: Against Grazer AK (6-1) they had 67% of the shots (24 to 12, on target 10-3). From 10 shots on target they scored 6, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 58% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Marseille — last game: Away to Angers (5-2) they had 66% of the shots (21 to 11, on target 8-3). From 8 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 2 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (SK Sturm Graz) 3.50 → 3.70 (+5.7%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.75 → 2.62 (-4.7%, backed) · Under 3.5 1.44 → 1.50 (+4.2%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.73 → 1.80 (+4%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.