Plzen v Levski Sofia: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · today 22:00 · Doosan Arena. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Plzen looking for a response
Plzen have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–2 away win at FK Jablonec and a 1–2 away defeat at Ferencvarosi TC. Levski Sofia have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Spartak Pleven and a 1–1 away draw with NEC Nijmegen.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 50%. Plzen score 1.6 and concede 1.8 a game, Levski Sofia 1.0 and 0.4. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.6 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Levski Sofia · 42%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Levski Sofia have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Plzen — last game: Away to FK Jablonec (3-2) they had 32% of the shots (11 to 23, on target 3-9). From 3 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 9 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Levski Sofia — last game: Away to NEC Nijmegen (1-1) they had 31% of the shots (8 to 18, on target 2-9). From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 9 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 48% of the shots and 20% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 60% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 10% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Levski Sofia) 4.50 → 4.75 (+5.6%, drifting) · 1 (Plzen) 1.75 → 1.70 (-2.9%, backed) · X (draw) 3.80 → 3.90 (+2.6%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.10 → 2.05 (-2.4%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.