Pafos v Riga: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa Conference League · today 19:45 · Alphamega Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Riga have a chance to respond
Pafos have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Apoel Nicosia and a 1–3 away defeat at Atalanta. Riga have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Super Nova and a 1–1 home draw with Kairat Almaty.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 55%. Pafos score 1.0 and concede 1.2 a game, Riga 1.6 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.4 = 2.6 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Riga · 41%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 53%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Riga have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 53% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Pafos — last game: Away to Atalanta (1-3) they had 33% of the shots (7 to 14, on target 4-5). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 5 on target. Over the last 3 they averaged 33% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target. They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 100% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Riga — last game: Against Super Nova (2-1) they had 67% of the shots (16 to 8, on target 8-4). From 8 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 62% of the shots and 70% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Riga) 5.00 → 5.25 (+5%, drifting) · 1 (Pafos) 1.62 → 1.57 (-3.1%, backed) · X (draw) 3.90 → 4.00 (+2.6%, drifting) · Double chance 12 1.25 → 1.22 (-2.4%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.