Omonia Nicosia v Benfica: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 22:00 · GSP Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Omonia Nicosia in good form
Omonia Nicosia have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Olympiacos and a 3–0 away win at Celje. Benfica have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over Celtic and a 2–0 home win over Guimaraes.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 50%. Omonia Nicosia score 2.6 and concede 0.6 a game, Benfica 2.4 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.6 = 3.1 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Benfica · 41%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 83%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Benfica have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 83% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Omonia Nicosia — last game: Away to Celje (3-0) they had 52% of the shots (14 to 13, on target 6-2). From 6 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 43% of the shots and 59% of the shots on target. They turn 110% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 14% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Benfica — last game: Against Celtic (4-1) they had 65% of the shots (26 to 14, on target 7-7). From 7 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 1 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Omonia Nicosia) 8.00 → 7.50 (-6.2%, backed) · X (draw) 5.00 → 4.75 (-5%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.08 → 1.10 (+1.9%, drifting) · 2 (Benfica) 1.36 → 1.38 (+1.5%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.