Olympiacos v Sparta Prague: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 22:00 · Karaiskakis Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Olympiacos in good form
Olympiacos have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Panetolikos and a 1–0 away win at Marseille. Sparta Prague have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Banik Ostrava and a 1–1 home draw with Lillestrom.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 35%. Olympiacos score 1.4 and concede 0.2 a game, Sparta Prague 2.2 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.3 = 2.6 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Olympiacos · 37%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 76%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Olympiacos have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Olympiacos — last game: Away to Panetolikos (2-0) they had 62% of the shots (21 to 13, on target 7-2). From 7 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 66% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 6% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 1 theirs. Sparta Prague — last game: Away to Banik Ostrava (0-0) they had 56% of the shots (15 to 12, on target 4-3). From 4 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 64% of the shots and 64% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 44% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 3 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 4.00 → 4.33 (+8.3%, drifting) · Over 3.5 3.00 → 2.75 (-8.3%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.00 → 2.10 (+5%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.80 → 1.73 (-3.9%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.