OFI v Bayer Leverkusen: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 19:45 · Pankritio Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
OFI looking for a response
OFI have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–4 away defeat at Kalamata and a 1–2 away defeat at Rennes. Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Freiburg and a 4–0 away win at Lech Poznan.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 45%. OFI score 1.6 and concede 2.2 a game, Bayer Leverkusen 2.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 2.0 = 3.7 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Bayer Leverkusen · 46%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 71%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Bayer Leverkusen have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 71% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
OFI — last game: Away to Kalamata (3-4) they had 38% of the shots (8 to 13, on target 3-9). From 3 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 4 from 9 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 32% of the shots and 28% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 62% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs. Bayer Leverkusen — last game: Against Freiburg (2-1) they had 55% of the shots (12 to 10, on target 5-2). From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 69% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 3 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 6.50 → 7.00 (+7.7%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.