Monaco v Freiburg: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa Conference League · today 22:00 · Stade Louis II. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Monaco in good form
Monaco have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Lorient and a 2–1 away win at CSKA Sofia. Freiburg have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Bayer Leverkusen and a 3–2 home win over FK Jablonec.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 70%. Monaco score 1.6 and concede 1.0 a game, Freiburg 2.4 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.6 = 3.4 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Monaco · 42%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 67%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Monaco have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 67% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Monaco — last game: Away to Lorient (0-1) they had 63% of the shots (15 to 9, on target 4-3). From 4 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Freiburg — last game: Away to Bayer Leverkusen (1-2) they had 45% of the shots (10 to 12, on target 2-5). From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 66% of the shots and 69% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 55% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 90% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 2.10 → 2.25 (+7.1%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.25 → 2.38 (+5.8%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.70 → 1.62 (-4.7%, backed) · Over 3.5 2.62 → 2.50 (-4.6%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.