Mixco v Municipal: analysis and our pick

Municipal have a chance to respond

Mixco have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Cobán Imperial and a 1–1 away draw with Marquense. Municipal have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Guastatoya and a 1–2 away defeat at Cobán Imperial.

The head-to-head favours Municipal

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Mixco, 0 draws, 4 for Municipal, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Municipal 2–0 Mixco (25 Jul 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 70%. Mixco score 2.0 and concede 1.4 a game, Municipal 1.4 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.5 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Municipal · 42%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 77%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Municipal have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 77% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Mixco — last game: Against Cobán Imperial (3-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Mixco). Over the last 3 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 2 theirs. Municipal — last game: Against Marquense (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..