Midtjylland v St. Truiden: analysis and our pick

Midtjylland in good form

Midtjylland have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Viborg and a 1–1 away draw with Egnatia Rrogozhinë. St. Truiden have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over Lommel United and a 2–0 home win over FC Iberia 1999.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Midtjylland score 2.0 and concede 1.0 a game, St. Truiden 1.8 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.3 = 3.3 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Midtjylland · 51%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Midtjylland have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Midtjylland — last game: Away to Viborg (2-1) they had 39% of the shots (12 to 19, on target 6-4). From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 45% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 26% of theirs. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. St. Truiden — last game: Against Lommel United (4-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 62% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 64% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 60% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.