Lillestrom v Real Sociedad: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 22:00 · Åråsen Stadion. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Real Sociedad have a chance to respond
Lillestrom have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Sandefjord and a 1–1 away draw with Sparta Prague. Real Sociedad have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 5–2 away win at Malaga and a 1–1 away draw with Union St. Gilloise.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 65%. Lillestrom score 2.0 and concede 1.4 a game, Real Sociedad 2.4 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.9 = 3.7 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Real Sociedad · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 72%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Real Sociedad have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 72% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Lillestrom — last game: Away to Sandefjord (2-0) they had 32% of the shots (10 to 21, on target 6-7). From 6 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 7 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 34% of the shots and 33% of the shots on target. They turn 56% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 19% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Real Sociedad — last game: Away to Malaga (5-2) they had 55% of the shots (21 to 17, on target 9-6). From 9 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 2 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 60% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 2 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Lillestrom) 6.00 → 5.50 (-8.3%, backed) · Double chance 1X 2.50 → 2.38 (-4.8%, backed) · Both teams score 1.75 → 1.70 (-2.9%, backed) · Not both to score 2.00 → 2.05 (+2.5%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.