Lech Poznan v Sunderland: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 19:45 · Stadion Miejski. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Lech Poznan in good form
Lech Poznan have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 6–1 home win over Korona Kielce and a 0–4 home defeat to Bayer Leverkusen. Sunderland have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Bournemouth and a 2–1 away win at Torreense.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. Lech Poznan score 3.4 and concede 1.8 a game, Sunderland 1.2 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 2.4 + 1.6 = 4.0 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Lech Poznan · 55%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 76%). Most likely score: 2–1.
Why these picks?
Lech Poznan have the highest probability (55%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Lech Poznan — last game: Against Korona Kielce (6-1) they had 48% of the shots (14 to 15, on target 6-5). From 6 shots on target they scored 6, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 74% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 39% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Sunderland — last game: Away to Bournemouth (0-2) they had 9% of the shots (3 to 29, on target 0-6). No shots on target, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Sunderland). Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 53% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Double chance 12 1.25 → 1.22 (-2.4%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.