Kauno Žalgiris v Brann: analysis and our pick

Kauno Žalgiris in good form

Kauno Žalgiris have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Suduva Marijampole and a 0–4 away defeat at Brighton. Brann have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Valerenga and a 2–1 home win over Lincoln Red Imps FC.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 45%. Kauno Žalgiris score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game, Brann 1.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.2 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Kauno Žalgiris · 52%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Kauno Žalgiris have the highest probability (52%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Kauno Žalgiris — last game: Away to Suduva Marijampole (1-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 8% of the shots and 10% of the shots on target. They turn 800% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 78% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Brann — last game: Away to Valerenga (1-3) they had 48% of the shots (20 to 22, on target 7-10). From 7 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 10 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 26% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 2 theirs, 2 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 4.00 → 4.33 (+8.3%, drifting) · 1 (Kauno Žalgiris) 4.50 → 4.75 (+5.6%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.75 → 2.62 (-4.7%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.73 → 1.67 (-3.5%, backed).