Kairat Almaty v Panathinaikos: analysis and our pick

Panathinaikos have a chance to respond

Kairat Almaty have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 5–0 home win over Irtysh and a 1–1 away draw with Riga. Panathinaikos have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 5–1 home win over Asteras Tripolis and a 2–1 home win over Borac Banja Luka.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 30%. Kairat Almaty score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game, Panathinaikos 2.0 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.5 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Panathinaikos · 43%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Panathinaikos have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Kairat Almaty — last game: Against Irtysh (5-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 42% of the shots and 27% of the shots on target. They turn 267% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 63% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Panathinaikos — last game: Against Asteras Tripolis (5-1) they had 84% of the shots (27 to 5, on target 8-1). From 8 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 1 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 70% of the shots and 73% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.