Juventus v Rennes: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 19:45 · Allianz Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Rennes have a chance to respond
Juventus have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–3 home defeat to Lazio and a 2–1 away win at Celta Vigo. Rennes have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–4 away defeat at Paris FC and a 2–1 home win over OFI.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. Juventus score 1.0 and concede 1.2 a game, Rennes 1.8 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.3 = 3.1 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Juventus · 49%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 83%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Juventus have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 83% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Juventus — last game: Against Lazio (0-3) they had 47% of the shots (8 to 9, on target 2-3). From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 67% of the shots and 72% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 22% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 67% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Rennes — last game: Away to Paris FC (3-4) they had 39% of the shots (12 to 19, on target 7-9). From 7 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 4 from 9 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 60% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 46% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: X (draw) 4.00 → 4.20 (+5%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.20 → 2.10 (-4.5%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.67 → 1.73 (+3.6%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.12 → 1.14 (+1.8%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.