Jagiellonia v Anderlecht: analysis and our pick

Jagiellonia looking for a response

Jagiellonia have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Zaglebie Lubin and a 3–1 home win over Ararat-Armenia. Anderlecht have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Beerschot VA and a 0–1 away defeat at Dinamo Zagreb.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 50%. Jagiellonia score 2.0 and concede 1.6 a game, Anderlecht 1.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.3 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Jagiellonia · 38%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 77%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Jagiellonia have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 77% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Jagiellonia — last game: Away to Zaglebie Lubin (0-1) they had 56% of the shots (15 to 12, on target 2-4). From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 71% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Anderlecht — last game: Away to Dinamo Zagreb (0-1) they had 43% of the shots (10 to 13, on target 6-3). From 6 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 51% of the shots and 59% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 14% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target.