H&H Export v Matagalpa: analysis and our pick

H&H Export looking for a response

H&H Export have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–4 home defeat to Jalapa and a 2–0 home win over Rancho Santana. Matagalpa have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–4 away defeat at Managua and a 1–5 home defeat to Walter Ferretti.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for H&H Export, 1 draw, 2 for Matagalpa, with 1.8 goals a game. Most recently: Matagalpa 0–3 H&H Export (19 Jul 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 40%. H&H Export score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game, Matagalpa 0.8 and 3.2. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.3 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · H&H Export · 44%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

H&H Export have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

H&H Export — last game: Away to San Marcos (2-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Matagalpa — last game: Against Real Estelí (1-4) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 3 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 2.