Getafe v FC Lugano: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa Conference League · tomorrow 19:45 · Coliseum. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
FC Lugano have a chance to respond
Getafe have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Rayo Vallecano and a 1–1 away draw with Universitatea Craiova. FC Lugano have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–0 away win at Pully Football and a 3–2 home win over FK Crvena Zvezda.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Getafe score 0.6 and concede 1.2 a game, FC Lugano 3.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 2.2 = 3.2 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · FC Lugano · 64%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 83%). Most likely score: 0–2.
Why these picks?
FC Lugano have the highest probability (64%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 83% from the same lambdas. 0–2 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Getafe — last game: Against Rayo Vallecano (1-1) they had 34% of the shots (11 to 21, on target 4-5). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 5 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Getafe). Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 38% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 18% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 2 theirs. FC Lugano — last game: Away to Pully Football (4-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 100% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 3.75 → 3.50 (-6.7%, backed) · Under 3.5 1.25 → 1.28 (+2.4%, drifting) · Over 2.5 2.08 → 2.05 (-1.4%, backed) · Under 2.5 1.73 → 1.75 (+1.2%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.