FK Jablonec v Brighton: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa Conference League · tomorrow 19:45 · Stadion Strelnice. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Brighton have a chance to respond
FK Jablonec have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–3 home defeat to Plzen and a 2–3 away defeat at Freiburg. Brighton have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 5–0 home win over Crystal Palace and a 4–0 home win over Kauno Žalgiris.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 40%. FK Jablonec score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game, Brighton 3.4 and 0.4. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.8 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Brighton · 48%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Brighton have the highest probability (48%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
FK Jablonec — last game: Against Plzen (2-3) they had 68% of the shots (23 to 11, on target 9-3). From 9 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 3 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 59% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 4). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 37% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Brighton — last game: Against Crystal Palace (5-0) they had 77% of the shots (17 to 5, on target 9-1). From 9 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 70% of the shots and 74% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 53% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 18% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 5.50 → 5.00 (-9.1%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.50 → 2.40 (-4%, backed) · Over 1.5 1.14 → 1.17 (+2.6%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.50 → 1.53 (+2%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.