FK Crvena Zvezda v FC Copenhagen: analysis and our pick

FK Crvena Zvezda in good form

FK Crvena Zvezda have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 5–1 home win over Mladost Lucani and a 2–3 away defeat at FC Lugano. FC Copenhagen have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Aarhus and a 3–0 home win over Braga.

An even head-to-head

In the last 2 meetings: 0 wins for FK Crvena Zvezda, 2 draws, 0 for FC Copenhagen, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: FC Copenhagen 2–2 FK Crvena Zvezda (13 Aug 2019).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 40%. FK Crvena Zvezda score 3.0 and concede 1.0 a game, FC Copenhagen 1.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.2 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · FK Crvena Zvezda · 56%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

FK Crvena Zvezda have the highest probability (56%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

FK Crvena Zvezda — last game: Against Mladost Lucani (5-1) they had 89% of the shots (32 to 4, on target 11-1). From 11 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 1 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 63% of the shots and 78% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 45% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. FC Copenhagen — last game: Against Aarhus (1-1) they had 77% of the shots (24 to 7, on target 7-3). From 7 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 68% of the shots and 64% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 56% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.