FC Nordsjaelland v CSKA Sofia: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa Conference League · tomorrow 19:45 · Right to Dream Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
CSKA Sofia have a chance to respond
FC Nordsjaelland have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–3 away draw with Lyngby and a 1–1 away draw with Hearts. CSKA Sofia have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Nesebar and a 1–2 home defeat to Monaco.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 60%. FC Nordsjaelland score 1.0 and concede 2.2 a game, CSKA Sofia 1.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.4 = 2.8 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · CSKA Sofia · 36%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
CSKA Sofia have the highest probability (36%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
FC Nordsjaelland — last game: Away to Lyngby (3-3) they had 48% of the shots (15 to 16, on target 7-10). From 7 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 3 from 10 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 38% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. CSKA Sofia — last game: Against Monaco (1-2) they had 67% of the shots (20 to 10, on target 5-5). From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 64% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 58% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (CSKA Sofia) 6.25 → 7.50 (+20%, drifting) · Double chance X2 2.62 → 3.00 (+14.5%, drifting) · Under 1.5 5.00 → 5.50 (+10%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.38 → 2.25 (-5.5%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.