Estudiantes de Merida FC v Caracas FC: analysis and our pick
Copa Venezuela · tomorrow 00:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Caracas FC have a chance to respond
Estudiantes de Merida FC have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Metropolitanos FC and a 1–2 away defeat at Monagas SC. Caracas FC have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Rayo Zuliano and a 1–3 away defeat at Aragua FC.
The head-to-head favours Estudiantes de Merida FC
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Estudiantes de Merida FC, 3 draws, 0 for Caracas FC, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Caracas FC 2–2 Estudiantes de Merida FC (4 Aug 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 60%. Estudiantes de Merida FC score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game, Caracas FC 1.8 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.3 = 2.6 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Caracas FC · 35%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 76%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Caracas FC have the highest probability (35%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Estudiantes de Merida FC — last game: Away to Monagas SC (1-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Caracas FC — last game: Against Zamora FC (4-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 3 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Caracas FC) 3.10 → 3.60 (+16.1%, drifting) · 1 (Estudiantes de Merida FC) 2.05 → 1.85 (-9.8%, backed) · X (draw) 3.30 → 3.40 (+3%, drifting) · Over 2.5 2.25 → 2.20 (-2.2%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.