Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 19:45 · Stadion Maksimir. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Dinamo Zagreb in good form
Dinamo Zagreb have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 5–1 away win at NK Slaven Belupo and a 1–0 home win over Anderlecht. NEC Nijmegen have won 0, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Fortuna Sittard and a 1–1 home draw with Levski Sofia.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 60%. Dinamo Zagreb score 2.8 and concede 1.0 a game, NEC Nijmegen 1.0 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 2.3 + 1.0 = 3.3 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Dinamo Zagreb · 66%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 2–0.
Why these picks?
Dinamo Zagreb have the highest probability (66%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 2–0 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Dinamo Zagreb — last game: Away to NK Slaven Belupo (5-1) they had 61% of the shots (17 to 11, on target 8-6). From 8 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 1 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 60% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 67% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. NEC Nijmegen — last game: Against Fortuna Sittard (2-2) they had 81% of the shots (22 to 5, on target 7-3). From 7 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 19% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 43% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (NEC Nijmegen) 4.75 → 5.00 (+5.3%, drifting) · X (draw) 4.10 → 4.20 (+2.4%, drifting) · Double chance X2 2.15 → 2.20 (+2.3%, drifting) · 1 (Dinamo Zagreb) 1.65 → 1.62 (-1.8%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.