Celtic v Celta Vigo: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · today 22:00 · Celtic Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Celtic looking for a response
Celtic have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 7–1 home win over Hearts and a 1–4 away defeat at Benfica. Celta Vigo have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Alaves and a 1–2 home defeat to Juventus.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. Celtic score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game, Celta Vigo 1.6 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.3 = 2.8 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Celtic · 41%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Celtic have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Celtic — last game: Against Hearts (7-1) they had 47% of the shots (18 to 20, on target 10-5). From 10 shots on target they scored 7, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Celta Vigo — last game: Against Alaves (2-1) they had 23% of the shots (6 to 20, on target 3-9). From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 9 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 15% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 3.00 → 2.62 (-12.7%, backed) · Under 1.5 4.00 → 4.33 (+8.3%, drifting) · Under 3.5 1.40 → 1.50 (+7.1%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.00 → 2.10 (+5%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.