Celje v Red Bull Salzburg: analysis and our pick
UEFA Europa League · tomorrow 22:00 · Stadion Z’dežele. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Red Bull Salzburg have a chance to respond
Celje have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Maribor and a 0–3 home defeat to Omonia Nicosia. Red Bull Salzburg have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over SCR Altach and a 0–4 home defeat to AC Milan.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 35%. Celje score 0.2 and concede 1.0 a game, Red Bull Salzburg 1.4 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 0.8 + 1.5 = 2.3 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Red Bull Salzburg · 52%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 61%). Most likely score: 0–1.
Why these picks?
Red Bull Salzburg have the highest probability (52%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 61% from the same lambdas. 0–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Celje — last game: Away to Maribor (0-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 37% of the shots and 26% of the shots on target. They turn 20% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red Bull Salzburg — last game: Against SCR Altach (3-0) they had 61% of the shots (20 to 13, on target 7-3). From 7 shots on target they scored 3, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 2.62 → 2.50 (-4.6%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.20 → 2.30 (+4.5%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.67 → 1.62 (-3%, backed) · Under 3.5 1.50 → 1.53 (+2%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.